Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
